State, Society & Governance in Melanesia Program

Timor-Leste After Xanana Gusmão: Challenges for Succession

Cilian Nolan – Deputy Director, Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC)

10-11am Thursday 18 September
Seminar Room A, Coombs Building, Fellows Rd, ANU 

Xanana Gusmão, Timor-Leste’s prime minister and former rebel leader, recently cancelled plans to step down early from his post, announcing instead plans to reshuffle the government’s 55-member cabinet. That decision deferred the vexed question of who would succeed Gusmão, who has played an instrumental role in forging political stability and economic growth in the wake of the country’s 2006 crisis. This seminar will examine some of the roots of the political succession problem, why stability has become overly dependent on one man and who might emerge as future leaders for the 2017 elections and beyond. The real challenges to both political stability and the health of its once troubled security sector will only emerge in the wake of Gusmão’s retirement from office; this seminar will look at prospects for mitigating risks.

About the Presenter: Cilian is deputy director of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) in Jakarta. From 2006 to 2013, he worked as a research analyst for the International Crisis Group, and was based in Dili from 2009 to 2011.

State, Society & Governance in Melanesia Program

Australian National University

Canberra, Act 0200

Australia

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